文章分類: 新聞 (燦榮之友)

what is truth---quote from Scientific American Mind

licw2004 — Sun, 17 May 2009 03:39:49 +0800

Consider a woman who has just received a positive result from a mammogram and asks her doctor: Do I have breast cancer for sure, or what are the chances that I have the disease? In a 2007 continuing education course for gynecologists, Gigerenzer asked 160 of these practitioners to answer that question given the following information about women in the region:
The probability that a woman has breast cancer (prevalence) is 1 percent.
If a woman has breast cancer, the probability that she tests positive (sensitivity) is 90 percent.
If a woman does not have breast cancer, the probability that she nonetheless tests positive (false-positive rate) is 9 percent.
What is the best answer to the patient's query?
A. The probability that she has breast cancer is about 81 percent.
B. Out of 10 women with a positive mammogram, about nine have breast cancer.
C. Out of 10 women with a positive mammogram, about one has breast cancer.
D. The probability that she has breast cancer is about 1 percent.
Gynecologists could derive the answer from the statistics above, or they could simply recall what they should have known anyhow. In either case, the best answer is C; only about one out of every 10 women who test positive in screening actually has breast cancer. The other nine are falsely alarmed. Prior to training, most (60 percent) of the gynecologists answered 90 percent or 81 percent, thus grossly overestimating the probability of cancer. Only 21 percent of physicians picked the best answer — one out of 10.

無天理

licw2004 — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 23:18:11 +0800

随着美国经济去年第四季度出现负增长3.8%，德国负增长8%，日本负增长12%，新加坡负增长16%，韩国负增长20%

大火暴央视高层贪腐：《财经》杂志遭封杀-------引述新聞

licw2004 — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 00:46:23 +0800

法国国际广播电台 2009-03-04

最新一期《财经》杂志3日遭中宣部下令回收，原因是其中报道了中央电视台新楼火灾调查过程中牵涉的央视高层贪腐问题。对此，法国国际广播电台驻上海特约记者曹国星报道说：

这篇由报道由财经杂志两位记者署名，称央视新楼火灾后，检、警对责任的调查并不止于渎职侵权，还延展至央视新址工程的经济问题。

对火灾有直接责任的央视新址筹建办主任徐威被刑事拘留后，交待了诸多问题，涉及央视新址建设诸项工程招投标经济问题，其中，涉及了中央电视台副台长、央视新址法定代表人李晓明。

报道说，元宵夜的烟花不仅是火灾元凶，亦是经济问题调查的主要突破口。引发火灾的烟花是由央视内部人控制的大新恒太采购而来，徐威则直接收取回扣8万元。

而大新恒太最早是由央视为新址建设专门成立的北京央视国金工程管理公司出资500万成立，后被几位央视中层“私有化”。并承揽了央视新址建设所需的设备、软件、系统设计、系统集成等，成立三年以来，至少经营了与央视新址工程有关的七宗业务，标的总金额过亿。

坊间还有传言称，大新恒太的几位股东如赵军，赵序霞，可能是台长赵化勇的家属，不过目前未能查证，61岁的赵化勇本应在2008年正常退休。

央视新楼由在2001年，原国家计委批复，总投资76.66亿元；其中央视自有资金55.17亿元，银行贷款21.49亿元。此后，央视新址建设工期一延再延，项目资金也一再上涨。

至2004年8月，国家发改委的批文增加资金至78.91亿元。至今，央视新址工程的建设投资已达120余亿元，另有70多亿元新设备费用，总投资200亿。

报道称，国家审计署2009年专项计划中，将包括对中央电视台管理层的离任审计，并将审计央视新址工程。

今天上午，这篇名为《央视大火“烧出”工程腐败，审计署介入》的调查报道在财经杂志网站上挂了五个小时后，被中宣部下令删除。

同时，部分还未送到订户手中的杂志也被要求回收。零售市场还可以看到这期杂志，但有很多订户反映没收到这期杂志。不过，正在北京的两会代表已经收到了记者派送的这期杂志。

obama victory speech

licw2004 — Mon, 02 Feb 2009 21:14:53 +0800

Hello, Chicago.

If there is anyone out there who still doubts that America is a placewhere all things are possible, who still wonders if the dream of ourfounders is alive in our time, who still questions the power of ourdemocracy, tonight is your answer.

It's the answer told bylines that stretched around schools and churches in numbers this nationhas never seen, by people who waited three hours and four hours, manyfor the first time in their lives, because they believed that this timemust be different, that their voices could be that difference.

It's the answer spoken by young and old, rich and poor, Democrat andRepublican, black, white, Hispanic, Asian, Native American, gay,straight, disabled and not disabled. Americans who sent a message tothe world that we have never been just a collection of individuals or acollection of red states and blue states.

We are, and always will be, the United States of America.

It's the answer that led those who've been told for so long by so manyto be cynical and fearful and doubtful about what we can achieve to puttheir hands on the arc of history and bend it once more toward the hopeof a better day.

It's been a long time coming, but tonight,because of what we did on this date in this election at this definingmoment change has come to America.

A little bit earlier this evening, I received an extraordinarily gracious call from Sen. McCain.

Sen. McCain fought long and hard in this campaign. And he's fought evenlonger and harder for the country that he loves. He has enduredsacrifices for America that most of us cannot begin to imagine. We arebetter off for the service rendered by this brave and selfless leader.

I congratulate him; I congratulate Gov. Palin for all that they'veachieved. And I look forward to working with them to renew thisnation's promise in the months ahead.

I want to thank mypartner in this journey, a man who campaigned from his heart, and spokefor the men and women he grew up with on the streets of Scranton androde with on the train home to Delaware, the vice president-elect ofthe United States, Joe Biden.

And I would not be standing heretonight without the unyielding support of my best friend for the last16 years the rock of our family, the love of my life, the nation's nextfirst lady Michelle Obama.

Sasha and Malia I love you bothmore than you can imagine. And you have earned the new puppy that'scoming with us to the new White House.

And while she's nolonger with us, I know my grandmother's watching, along with the familythat made me who I am. I miss them tonight. I know that my debt to themis beyond measure.

To my sister Maya, my sister Alma, all myother brothers and sisters, thank you so much for all the support thatyou've given me. I am grateful to them.

And to my campaignmanager, David Plouffe, the unsung hero of this campaign, who built thebest -- the best political campaign, I think, in the history of theUnited States of America.

To my chief strategist David Axelrod who's been a partner with me every step of the way.

To the best campaign team ever assembled in the history of politics youmade this happen, and I am forever grateful for what you've sacrificedto get it done.

But above all, I will never forget who this victory truly belongs to. It belongs to you. It belongs to you.

I was never the likeliest candidate for this office. We didn't startwith much money or many endorsements. Our campaign was not hatched inthe halls of Washington. It began in the backyards of Des Moines andthe living rooms of Concord and the front porches of Charleston. It wasbuilt by working men and women who dug into what little savings theyhad to give $5 and $10 and $20 to the cause.

It grew strengthfrom the young people who rejected the myth of their generation'sapathy who left their homes and their families for jobs that offeredlittle pay and less sleep.

It drew strength from thenot-so-young people who braved the bitter cold and scorching heat toknock on doors of perfect strangers, and from the millions of Americanswho volunteered and organized and proved that more than two centurieslater a government of the people, by the people, and for the people hasnot perished from the Earth.

This is your victory.

And I know you didn't do this just to win an election. And I know you didn't do it for me.

You did it because you understand the enormity of the task that liesahead. For even as we celebrate tonight, we know the challenges thattomorrow will bring are the greatest of our lifetime -- two wars, aplanet in peril, the worst financial crisis in a century.

Evenas we stand here tonight, we know there are brave Americans waking upin the deserts of Iraq and the mountains of Afghanistan to risk theirlives for us.

There are mothers and fathers who will lie awakeafter the children fall asleep and wonder how they'll make the mortgageor pay their doctors' bills or save enough for their child's collegeeducation.

There's new energy to harness, new jobs to be created, new schools to build, and threats to meet, alliances to repair.

The road ahead will be long. Our climb will be steep. We may not getthere in one year or even in one term. But, America, I have never beenmore hopeful than I am tonight that we will get there.

I promise you, we as a people will get there.

There will be setbacks and false starts. There are many who won't agreewith every decision or policy I make as president. And we know thegovernment can't solve every problem.

But I will always behonest with you about the challenges we face. I will listen to you,especially when we disagree. And, above all, I will ask you to join inthe work of remaking this nation, the only way it's been done inAmerica for 221 years -- block by block, brick by brick, calloused handby calloused hand.

What began 21 months ago in the depths of winter cannot end on this autumn night.

This victory alone is not the change we seek. It is only the chance forus to make that change. And that cannot happen if we go back to the waythings were.

It can't happen without you, without a new spirit of service, a new spirit of sacrifice.

So let us summon a new spirit of patriotism, of responsibility, whereeach of us resolves to pitch in and work harder and look after not onlyourselves but each other.

Let us remember that, if thisfinancial crisis taught us anything, it's that we cannot have athriving Wall Street while Main Street suffers.

In thiscountry, we rise or fall as one nation, as one people. Let's resist thetemptation to fall back on the same partisanship and pettiness andimmaturity that has poisoned our politics for so long.

Let'sremember that it was a man from this state who first carried the bannerof the Republican Party to the White House, a party founded on thevalues of self-reliance and individual liberty and national unity.

Those are values that we all share. And while the Democratic Party haswon a great victory tonight, we do so with a measure of humility anddetermination to heal the divides that have held back our progress.

As Lincoln said to a nation far more divided than ours, we are notenemies but friends. Though passion may have strained, it must notbreak our bonds of affection.

And to those Americans whosesupport I have yet to earn, I may not have won your vote tonight, but Ihear your voices. I need your help. And I will be your president, too.

And to all those watching tonight from beyond our shores, fromparliaments and palaces, to those who are huddled around radios in theforgotten corners of the world, our stories are singular, but ourdestiny is shared, and a new dawn of American leadership is at hand.

To those -- to those who would tear the world down: We will defeat you.To those who seek peace and security: We support you. And to all thosewho have wondered if America's beacon still burns as bright: Tonight weproved once more that the true strength of our nation comes not fromthe might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduringpower of our ideals: democracy, liberty, opportunity and unyieldinghope.

That's the true genius of America: that America canchange. Our union can be perfected. What we've already achieved givesus hope for what we can and must achieve tomorrow.

Thiselection had many firsts and many stories that will be told forgenerations. But one that's on my mind tonight's about a woman who casther ballot in Atlanta. She's a lot like the millions of others whostood in line to make their voice heard in this election except for onething: Ann Nixon Cooper is 106 years old.

She was born just ageneration past slavery; a time when there were no cars on the road orplanes in the sky; when someone like her couldn't vote for two reasons-- because she was a woman and because of the color of her skin.

And tonight, I think about all that she's seen throughout her centuryin America -- the heartache and the hope; the struggle and theprogress; the times we were told that we can't, and the people whopressed on with that American creed: Yes we can.

At a timewhen women's voices were silenced and their hopes dismissed, she livedto see them stand up and speak out and reach for the ballot. Yes we can.

When there was despair in the dust bowl and depression across the land,she saw a nation conquer fear itself with a New Deal, new jobs, a newsense of common purpose. Yes we can.

When the bombs fell onour harbor and tyranny threatened the world, she was there to witness ageneration rise to greatness and a democracy was saved. Yes we can.

She was there for the buses in Montgomery, the hoses in Birmingham, abridge in Selma, and a preacher from Atlanta who told a people that "WeShall Overcome." Yes we can.

A man touched down on the moon, a wall came down in Berlin, a world was connected by our own science and imagination.

And this year, in this election, she touched her finger to a screen,and cast her vote, because after 106 years in America, through the bestof times and the darkest of hours, she knows how America can change.

Yes we can.

America, we have come so far. We have seen so much. But there is somuch more to do. So tonight, let us ask ourselves -- if our childrenshould live to see the next century; if my daughters should be so luckyto live as long as Ann Nixon Cooper, what change will they see? Whatprogress will we have made?

This is our chance to answer that call. This is our moment.

This is our time, to put our people back to work and open doors ofopportunity for our kids; to restore prosperity and promote the causeof peace; to reclaim the American dream and reaffirm that fundamentaltruth, that, out of many, we are one; that while we breathe, we hope.And where we are met with cynicism and doubts and those who tell usthat we can't, we will respond with that timeless creed that sums upthe spirit of a people: Yes, we can.

Thank you. God bless you. And may God bless the United States of America.

轉載文章---金融海嘯起源

licw2004 — Mon, 02 Feb 2009 00:01:52 +0800

—— 透視金融海嘯起源探討最低工資邏輯

馮德聰　策略分析顧問　互聯網專業協會政策委員會副主席

　一些議員或許是好心，但扭曲市場機制的政策，必然會導致深遠嚴重的後果。「社區再投資法」透過「次按」，用30年搞出一場「金融海嘯」的事故告訴我們，在同一邏輯下扭曲市場自然均衡的「最低工資」和「最高工時」，最後也必然會像「社區再投資法」一樣，爆出致命的問題，然後再由整個社會的所有市民「埋單找數」。

　金融風暴的源頭，是美國的次級按揭，但次按的「起源」才是所有事件的起因。次級按揭的出現，源於歷屆民主黨政客不斷催谷、終於在1977年卡特政府及其民主黨議員，全然不顧來自銀行界對監管法案強烈不滿，訂定「社區再投資法」CRA（Community　Reinvestment　Act），規定金融企業須對中低收入者貸款、及在中低收入地區投資，以改善弱勢群體的融資困難。換言之，就是要規定商業機構大力借錢予「弱勢社群」，那麼政府便能不費一文，就可以透過立法，以商界資源改善「弱勢社群」的生活。很熟悉，是嗎？那不就正是「最低工資」的基本邏輯嗎！

　1993年初，克林頓更要求增加CRA管制條例，讓農村以及城鎮貧困區也可以得到更多的按揭貸款。終於在1995年，新CRA生效，而且其中增加了一些條款，以鼓勵社區組織「投訴」沒有給「弱勢群體」足夠貸款的銀行，據聞匯豐銀行初到美國時也曾經被投訴。借錢容易之下，美國人人買樓。但要注意，這不是因為人們有錢買樓，只是政策扭曲市場行為的效果。據估計，在CRA推動下，金融界共貸出了超過一兆億美金。

過分扭曲市場釀成金融海嘯

　前些年經濟好，房價飆漲，恰好把這些風險隱藏起來；而新版的CRA准許按揭資產被包裝成按揭證券出售，按揭證券化之後，風險亦轉嫁給投資按揭證券的個人和機構投資者，銀行順利套現，取得資金再融資。當以樓按做抵押的證券進入市場，原本地區性的「次按」問題，就透過金融市場的「槓桿」越滾越大，加上全球金融一體化，次按相關的金融衍生產品規模越大，深陷其中的國際金融機構就越多。30年下來，這個遲早會爆破的「泡沫」就越來越恐怖了。

　終於經濟衰退跡象出現，房價急速下挫，原本供不起樓的人開始斷供，把房子丟給銀行，「次按」這金融核彈終於爆發。銀行用來分擔自己風險的金融衍生產品成了暴風眼，造成了金融機構巨大的虧損。連鎖反應把所有相關機構拖入漩渦，「海嘯」席捲全世界。

　「社區再投資法」以官員的「喜好」，指揮借貸投資的邏輯傾向，強行製造出不正常的「市場」。但這「官定」的畸形市場能夠長久運作下去嗎？「次按」的故事告訴我們，「非自然」的市場均衡，比短期的市場失衡更可怕，問題被壓下越久，爆發出來的時候就會越嚴重。

　回看香港，同樣是要協助解決「弱勢社群」的住房問題，我們的廉租屋和居屋雖然也有扭曲市場，但由於房屋資助經費清楚地被列為政府開支，沒有被政策隱藏在商業開支和資產裡，要出問題也沒有那麼嚴重，香港的房屋資助模式，看來值得美國借鑒。由此可見，要搞福利，明刀明槍的由政府派錢好了，要靠扭曲市場機制去搞房屋福利，最後還不是由納稅人給的公帑去「救市」找數，錢只是遲點由口袋出走罷！

在相同邏輯下訂出的「最低工資」

　而「最低工資」的邏輯，其實就是和「社區再投資法」的設想一脈相承：官員的法規魔術棒一揮，市場就要在一個不符市場合理效益，但符合某種指導「理想」的位置運作。

　原本，不同的工作酬勞應按市場供求而不同，市場工資低，有可能是經濟轉型，人力資源錯配，但可能難於透過政策解決，迫僱主加人工看來簡單得多。「最低工資」是「官員規管」凌駕自然市場的秩序，硬要把價格統一，就必然會「扭曲」在雙方自願之下，自然形成，千變萬化的勞僱合約，而「理性價」和「官價」的差價，就會是名為罰則規管的「交易費用」。無論訂在哪個水平，「最低工資」都只會剝奪勞資雙方的訂價自由，減少可出現的僱用合約選擇。市場會被「官管」歪曲，變成畸形。

　「付出」和「得到」的價值相「等價」才是真正的「公平」，「等價交換」在現實裡是真實不虛的「鐵律」。法例一旦規定了「最低工資」的價碼，若這數字高於現有的市場水平，給了更多的錢，付錢的一方自然會要求更高，以達到「等價」這定律。市場會因此而傾斜向高質素的僱員，能力強、年輕、外觀較好、學歷較高的……附加價值高的，條件好的人，會比「弱勢」的待聘人士更易找到工作。年紀稍大、外觀稍遜、學歷和經驗較差……的待聘人士，原本可以用較低的薪資爭取到職位，以工作能力和表現取得「力爭上游」的機會，就會被從此摧毀。淪為失業者的他們，選擇權被剝奪後，「好心」的議員們會為他們申領綜援，這張選票就更穩陣了。

　「最低工資」就著官方的「就業」和「薪酬」數字來解讀出的表象，自然只會對立論者有利。但相信「領取綜援」和「失業者自殺率」的數字，會告訴我們一個不同於官方詮釋的真相。2005年，香港大學防止自殺研究中心研究顯示，失業人士自殺率遠遠高過整體人口自殺率，數字指出，如果以每10萬人計，正常人的自殺率為14.4，但失業人士的自殺率就會是高達158.4，比正常人高出11倍！「弱勢」的待聘人士通往「地獄」的道路，就是通過「好心」議員提出的「最低工資」鋪成！（文匯論壇）

貨幣戰爭(續)

licw2004 — Sun, 25 Jan 2009 13:10:55 +0800

曾經出版暢銷書「貨幣戰爭」並準確預言全球金融危機的學者宋鴻兵表示，這次金融大海嘯共有地震、海嘯、火山爆發、陷入冰河四個階段。

宋鴻兵對香港「文匯報」指出，金融危機的第一階段是次級房貸「地震」，從2007年2月到2008年5月，以美國的「兩房」難以為繼為主要標誌。

第二階段是違約「海嘯」，從2008年6月到2009年上半年，主要表現為規模為62兆美元的信用掉期市場發生違約危機。

第三階段是利率「火山爆發」，主要表現為信貸全面緊縮造成長期貸款利率飆升，進而引發規模將近600兆美元的利率掉期市場出現危機。

第四階段為美元「陷入冰河」，全球美元資產將出現信心危機，從而動搖美元世界儲備貨幣地位。

宋鴻兵出生於四川，1994年赴美國美利堅大學留學，2002年起先後在美國房貸公司房地美和房利美擔任諮詢顧問，2007年6月出版暢銷書「貨幣戰爭」。

陳水扁的笑話

licw2004 — Sat, 24 Jan 2009 21:19:07 +0800

據最新一期台灣《壹週刊》報道，指陳水扁在新作中寫

到，在看守所裡很少做夢，但11月19日的夢境卻清楚難忘，

他夢到在一次大選中途，剩下沒幾天選舉就要結束，他提出

「只做一任，絕不支薪」等五點政見，企圖以此勝出。

測字算命　料「三度當選」

對於第二次入獄的編號，阿扁也認為是上天賦予他的神

奇密碼。他說：「22年前，我第一次入獄的編號是5499，當

時也在土城看守所的老政工蕭政之曾戲稱，有一天我會登

上權力的高峰，甚至做到九五之尊。5499，5加4等於9，三

個9，999又是95(九五之尊)。」他還拿「2630」的獄中代

號，為自己測字算命，二是再選，六是「六六大順」，三指

的是「三度當選」，零是一個圈圈，代表天命注定，這樣才

算很圓滿。

奧巴馬上場

licw2004 — Fri, 23 Jan 2009 22:37:01 +0800

奧巴馬就職，人人笑餐飽(如果你識笑)，因為:

1. 大法官記錯對白，總統宣誓都要重來。

2.馬友友表演四重奏，同北京搞奧運一樣....播帶。唔敢現場LIVE，為中國人在奧運咪咀平反

3.奧巴馬不再談CHANGE，談責任，變調之快，比中國變臉有過之而無不及

4.奧巴馬發表演說，AUTOCUE(提詞機)放兩邊，所以只懂兩頭望，但係無錢速速磅。

5.每次演講都大大聲，證實大聲真係唔代表無禮貎

6.一上場即指中國操控人民幣，觀點新穎，妄顧美國大印美鈔事實

正道是: 天下烏鴉一樣黑，黑人總統黑上黑

貨幣戰爭

licw2004 — Wed, 21 Jan 2009 18:12:40 +0800

內地作者宋鴻兵，一書 "貨幣戰爭"，道盡西方陰謀。

當中細節雖有不少可批評之處，但無損對當前局勢的推測。

宋接受電視訪問，指零九年的風暴，是零八年的三倍，請各位密切留意

海角七號

licw2004 — Tue, 30 Dec 2008 01:56:37 +0800

姑勿論你有沒有看過台灣的電影"海角七號"，作為兩岸三地的研究，也值得看看，以下是部份人對電影的解說:

"《海角七號》被指是一篇政治宣言，除了指男主角阿嘉的「留下來，或者我跟你走！」，是寓意台灣回應日本溫婉有禮、含情脈脈的主權要求之外，片中處處流露皇民化的痕迹。
1. 台灣的海很美，恆春也很美，最令觀眾痴迷的是壓軸的「國境之南」。這部電影以日語旁白開始、結束，日本人才是說故事的主體。
「國境之南」是日本的國境之南─台灣，與恆春是不是在台灣的最南端沒有關係。戰前日文報刊的「國境之南」泛稱日本南方的台灣。
2. 電影開頭的第一封情書「友子，太陽已經完全沒入了海面，我真的已經完全看不見台灣島了，你還站在那裏等我嗎？」─背後的意思是「台灣的好朋友，大日本帝國無條件投降，徹底失去了台灣，今天你們還願意重續前緣嗎？」
3. 為日本歌星特別準備的樂隊，是這個「殖民烏托邦」社會關係的縮影。
樂隊中各人都扮演了「殖民烏托邦」的不同角色，郵差阿嘉是皇民買辦，客家人推銷員是長工，原住民警察父子是保鏢，形成了一個以日本指揮者為中心的「超穩定結構」。
4. 女主角友子組織樂隊是完成日本布置的政治任務，創作源泉來自日本，在友子一夜「親善」的激勵下，阿嘉終於完成了任務。最後，為日本人送信的事情最大，就算演唱會延遲開始也得照辦。"

假如你不同意的話，絶對正常，香港人看不到這些特點。

但我認為，台灣人真的有點日本人情意結。且看李登輝，大家就知，他是不折不扣的日本人。

再談王維基

licw2004 — Thu, 25 Dec 2008 01:18:00 +0800

王維基在中大剛讀完emba，我早他一年，在城大emba畢業，故此他在ATV所做的改革，我特別留意。

馬後跑之言: 他明白不少管理的道理，但也有不少盲點。

他明白到MISSION, VISION, CORE VALUE和溝通的重要性。

但我在ATV八年半，在TVB十年，就明白到他錯在那裡。

他不明白這是CHANGE MANAGEMENT，要成功:

一: 老闆支持。(看來他還是摸不透老闆的心事)

二:創造危切性: (他明白，但其他總監不明，也不願明)

三:應變團隊: 他有嗎?

四:短期可致勝少型計劃: (他沒有提出過)

五:SHORT TERM WIN...

六:把勝利擴大至其他範圍(他已經沒有機會了)

假如他讀過近作 "藍海策略" ，就更應該明白，要創造沒有競爭的藍海，必須排除障礙和將行動者納入決策。

一言以蔽之: 操之過急。

但也難保終有一天，王先生會捲土重來，我也寄望這一天。

明愛總監還算是人嗎?

licw2004 — Tue, 23 Dec 2008 00:46:03 +0800

明愛病了。

一個巿民在醫院旁失救，明愛醫院總監竟然可以強調員工已跟足指引!一而再，再而三，把責任推到消防處。

社會的運作，不外乎三項原則: 情、法、理。

一眾官員和明愛的總監，一直以為依法就是一切的擋箭牌。

這是有法，但無理，也無情。

無情者，如何為領導? 如何為人?

局長周一嶽說明愛的回應強差人意。

我認為，明愛總監還未有資格稱作一個人。

澳門廿三條立法

licw2004 — Sun, 21 Dec 2008 00:59:36 +0800

澳門廿三條立法，香港一批議員抗議。

我剛從澳門培訓回來，有兩點感想:

一:請不要一廂情願，以為澳門人會反對立法

二:立法與執行，往往是兩回事

倪震現象

licw2004 — Sat, 20 Dec 2008 15:34:59 +0800

才子倪震與玉女周慧敏一場風波，很多人都不明白背後的邏輯。

假如各位有長期讀我的文章，就不難找到答案，這是可以理論和可以解釋的正常現象，較早時我寫了一篇關於快樂與婚姻的分析，原文如下:

"不少人都認為，婚姻破裂，出現第三者，往往是婚姻不快樂的產物，但有沒有想過，快樂的婚姻仍然離不開不忠呢?

有心理學家經過超過一千四百個個案研究後發現，快樂的夫妻，出現不忠情況，比較甚為快樂的夫妻，多了一倍。

至於不甚快樂的夫妻，出現不忠的機會，更比甚為快樂的夫妻高兩倍。而人們在超常理快樂ULTRA HAPPY下，才會肯定對配偶忠心。

這是艾堅斯教授在近期出版的婚姻與家庭期刊的結論。

多位教授不同的研究亦有類似發現，例如阿倫教授追踪研究72對夫妻五年，其中有13男11女出現不忠，關鍵是他們在事發前，大部份並非因為原因婚姻出現溝通問題。

這位教授的另一項相關調查又發現，出現不忠的被訪者中，只有四成八的女性和兩成半的男性，指出事發前有很多婚姻問題。

簡而言之，即婚姻上的不忠，事前不一定出現不快樂，也不一定有溝通問題，而能有效防止的方法，就是夫妻要時刻找出不會令對方厭倦的方法。"

王維基聲明全文

licw2004 — Sat, 20 Dec 2008 15:32:45 +0800

各位朋友：

過了這十二天，我上了人生寶貴的一課：堅持直率，用辭謹慎。

亞洲電視是一個具有使命和社會責任的機構，無論從香港人的立場還是其他因素來考慮，亞視始終是一個香港人的電視台，我認為這個方向至今依然正確。香港的人均本地生產總值是內地十多倍，中國是我們的國家，有能力時，我們應該想有什麼貢獻，而不是過份依賴。

亞視始終是一間商營機構，他的希望在於自己，不可以長期依靠賑助。亞視從新定位，讓創作有更大的空間、讓觀眾有更多選擇，令亞視成為香港有公信力的媒體，這是我們三人的共同夢想。直至今天，我依然擁抱這個熱切期待。

從接受這份工作的第一天起，我已經知道這是一項艱鉅的任務。聽張永霖先生所言：「出任執行主席一職，百感交集，戰戰兢兢，如履薄冰。」我就想起康有為生先廢除八股文，一段可歌可泣的歷史。

沒有膽識，就幹不了大事。

要改革，我沒有想過得到全部人的認同，改革的過程中，我們要面對固有利益的強大阻力，要改革成功，就一定要迅速、全面和徹底，更重要的是，要有後備計劃。以上種種，我已經有充足準備。過往四年，我在城市電訊亦在進行過類似改革工作，公司由幾年前虧損數億元到今天賺一億二千多萬。我認為這種全面改革，對亞視來是必須的，改革的目的，是要令員工對自己的公司、工作和人生重投信心，感到驕傲。

我不是一個輕言放棄的人，我已盡我的最大努力。我依然深信我所做的大部份事，對亞視和員工都是正確和有利的，只是，大家的步伐並不一致。我也曾經說過，我已經愛上這間公司，因為那裏充滿希望和優秀的前線員工，這種想法至今不變。我一直以堅持直率，真心待人，所做的一切，都從亞視和員工的利益為出發點。

最後，我想提提張永霖先生，因為我在他身上學到很多，正如Linus說過，我們是背對背的，無其他人可以離間我們。雖然在短暫的未來，我不能再和他一起為亞視服務，但我會默默的支持他。

可能我倆實在太用心去做事，根本不單止當這是一份工作，更將亞視當成自己的公司。若我們之間任何一個出現差錯，都只因為太過用心、太過投入。由始至終，我沒有考慮過自己個人的成敗和利益，我們只有一個焦點：怎樣才可以令亞視走上成功之路。可惜，事情發展就像很多愛情故事一樣，你最愛的，不一定是和你結婚和生活的那位。

我們擁有一個共同目標，只可惜，在日常運作上出現不同看法。就好像爸爸媽媽照顧他們的嬰孩一樣，孩子過了晚上的飲奶時間，仍然熟睡。到底應該由他安睡，還是叫醒他喝奶呢？雖然觀點不同，大家只是希望用最好的方法去照顧孩子，愛心卻是共通的。

大家都同意，要為亞視建立新文化和新路向。我選擇在這時退下來，應該是最恰當的做法。

無論如何，在過往的十二天，我倆一直緊密合作，所做的每一件事、每一個決定都有我們的共同意見和討論。籍此，我衷心感謝他帶領我走過這一段路。

工作完結了，兄弟情仍在。

最後，是關於亞洲小姐面試的。我用錯字眼，但我絕無半點不尊重之意，失言亦是無心之失。無論如何，我必須承認這是一個錯誤。對此我深感歉疚，衷心希望得到佳麗和大眾的原諒。

王維基

二零零八年十二月十七日